SVDX

Producers and wholesalers have prepared for higher tariffs by buying goods in advance, which is creating the conditions for a modest inventory correction should demand slow. The risk particularly applies to purchases of durables such as machinery and equipment, our analysis of inventory data shows.

Over the past three years, the core analytical framework that has been used to understand the post-pandemic economy is that a fundamental structural shift, or regime change, is taking place.

With higher tariffs likely under the incoming Trump administration, businesses are already making decisions in a way that will affect economic growth and reshape the global economy.

RSM’s economic baseline forecast for 2025 calls for 2.5% growth, unemployment of 4.2% and PCE inflation at 2.2%.

RSM released an article about how the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy.

RSM’s recent report on the economy forecasts 1.8% growth in the second half of the year with a 20% probability of a recession over the next 12 months and a slower pace of hiring.

A recent RSM insight indicates that a 3.2% increase in productivity in last year’s final quarter has helped spur growth and disinflation.

A recent RSM article discusses geopolitical tensions representing a major risk to economic and inflation outlooks, with the focus of the new uncertainty centered on the energy markets.

RSM’s recent Economic Outlook reports solid consumer spending driven by real personal income gains and sustained private investment will underscore a steady pace of growth at or near the 1.8% long-run rate in the United States in 2024.